보건복지부 영문홈페이지

Review of Shift from Mandatory to Voluntary Isolation
격리여부 전환 여부 검토

PRESS RELEASE
MAY 20, 2022

As the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters drafted the nation’s post-Omicron response plan, they downgraded COVID-19 to a “Class-2” infectious disease but postponed the decision on whether to shift toward voluntary isolation by one month to assess the COVID-19 situation while maintaining the mandatory isolation and support measures for that period.

After the one-month assessment of comprehensive factors, including the ongoing safety and public health situation, possibility of new Omicron subvariants emerging and spreading in the nation, new COVID-19 forecasts, level of preparedness for a transition to general healthcare, and expert opinions, the government has decided to maintain the current restrictions and reassess COVID-19-related developments after another four weeks (on June 20, 2022).

(COVID-19 Situation) After peaking in the third week of March, the number of confirmed cases, deaths and critically ill cases, have decreased steadily, although the pace of the decline has slowed recently.

The average number of newly confirmed cases remains in the 20,000 to 30,000 range, and the COVID-19 reproduction number for the second week of May stands at 0.90, an 0.18 increase from the previous week.

Moreover, highly-infectious new variants have appeared overseas, including in the United States and South Africa, and have also been detected in South Korea*, increasing the risk of emerging variants entering and spreading in the nation.
* 19 BA.2.12.1 cases (17 cases from inbound travelers and 2 domestic cases), 1 BA.4 case (1 case from an inbound traveler), and 2 BA.5 cases (1 case from an inbound traveler and 1 domestic case)

Given the current vaccines’ declining effectiveness against infection and the growing possibility of immune escapes, the new variants are highly likely to spark another wave of COVID-19 infections if imported into the country.

 (COVID-19 Forecast) The emergence of new variants, waning effectiveness of social distancing, and transition to voluntary isolation could precipitate another surge of the pandemic, which is expected in the second half of the year.

In particular, if the nation shifts to voluntary isolation, it will not be able to sustain the current downward trend in COVID-19 infections, with new cases under such a scenario expected to rebound in June or July by 1.7 times (50% participating in isolation) to 4.5 times (none participating in isolation).

A number of COVID-19 trend projection models from researchers also point to the same conclusion: a slowing decline before a resurgence when the existing isolation mandate is completely lifted.

 

< Key Findings of COVID-19 Trend Projection Modeling After isolation Is Lifted >   ▸ 9 out of 10 research institutes predicting a surge in infection cases (1 study predicting the current trend will remain) ▸ Scale of new infections to differ by 4.5 to 7.5 times depending on whether isolation is fully complied with or dismissed

(Comparison with Other Countries) A majority of countries around the world are keeping their isolation rules in place, and South Korea still suffers higher rates of infection and death compared to major nations.

Considering that COVID-19 is highly contagious, the current WHO guidance says that people with symptoms should stay isolated for a minimum of 10 days after the first day they developed symptoms, plus another 3 days after the end of symptoms – when they are without fever and without respiratory symptoms, and that people without symptoms should stay isolated for a minimum of 10 days after testing positive. Many other countries are maintaining their quarantine mandate.

There are some countries that are implementing quarantine measures on a voluntary basis, but they have opted for this easing as part of their efforts to keep essential social functions intact at the time of a rapid surge in infections.

< Major Countries’ Quarantine Standards >

	Quarantine of Up to 5 Days	Quarantine of 7 Days
Quarantine Recommended	U.S., Sweden, Canada, Denmark, Finland, U.K., Norway, Iceland, Portugal, and Switzerland	France and Poland
Quarantine Required	Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Israel, and Slovakia	Australia, Czech Republic, Latvia, New Zealand, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Costa Rica, Turkey, Hungary, and Singapore